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See what changed around your trade. And what it means for your margin.

An agricultural trade sits in contracts, a shipment, a pricing basis and a hedge. The margin can still move due to port congestion, freight price changes, delays, price movements, supplier risks and weather.

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Aerial view of terraced tea plantations, contour rows and access tracks running through them.
  • Port congestionMay 28
    Port
    Hamburg
    Signal
    3-day vessel queue
    Trade
    Discharge window
  • Weather eventsMay 29
    Region
    Espírito Santo
    Signal
    Heavy rainfall
    Trade
    Supply timing
  • Counterparty financialsMay 30
    Party
    Nordhafen
    Signal
    Credit watch
    Trade
    Payment terms
  • Freight rate increasesMay 31
    Lane
    Santos–Hamburg
    Signal
    Capacity tightening
    Trade
    Delivered margin
  • Document delaysJun 1
    Document
    Bill of lading
    Signal
    Draft pending
    Trade
    Presentation
  • FX market movementsJun 2
    Pair
    EUR / USD
    Signal
    Volatility rising
    Trade
    Invoice conversion
  • Interest rate hikesJun 3
    Market
    Euro area
    Signal
    Funding cost up
    Trade
    Working capital

What surrounds the trade.

Weather, port congestion, supplier risks, counterparty changes, regulation amendments, tariffs… All changes that impact your margin. Connect them back to your trade.

Margin moved from 1.8% to 1.5% YoY
Main movers:
Asia sales down Q3, weather impacts and port delays in Q4
Impact:
0.1% due to compressed volumes at origin
0.2% due to delays causing FX leakage
Urgency:
Medium
Actions:
Negotiate longer storage terms and pre-buy the next crop
Estimated impact:
-8 USD / MT
Trajectory:
Positive for Q4 due to freight rates easing

One trade. Four events.

A green coffee shipment from Santos to Hamburg. Straightforward on paper. Weather, port congestion, supplier risks and liquidity constraints in reality.

Santos → Hamburg

Product
Green coffee, arabica
Grade, quantity
Screen 17/18, 1,200 MT
Your position
Buy Santos FOB, sell Hamburg DDP Warehouse
Counterparties
Verde Serra → Nordhafen
Shipment
62 x 20ft, MV Ilha Clara
Sale pricing
Sale leg to be fixed
Hedge
Short 70 lots, FX unhedged
Key dates
B/L May 21, docs +21 days

01Congestion at the port of loading

Urgency
High
Confidence
High

Santos port congestion causing higher terminal costs and handling fees, working capital tied up for additional 10 days. At 6.5% borrowing costs as per your latest Q2 loan rates, the margin impact is -8.70 USD / MT, margin compression estimated at 11%. Cash cycle extended by 25 days on average.

Suggested action: Roll FX and notify counterparty.

  1. Working capital, additional
    10 days
    Cash cycle extended, average
    25 days

  2. Buy Santos FOB

    Q2 loan rates
    6.5%
    Terminal and handling fees
    higher
  3. Margin compression, estimated
    11%
    Margin impact
    -8.70 USD / MT
The wait at Santos, the borrowing rate it is financed at, and the margin it costs.

02Logistics costs restructuring

Urgency
Medium
Confidence
High

Hamburg handling costs announced as overall 8 USD / MT higher starting H1 2027, affecting 2,153 MT of in-store coffee shipments. Overall margin spread across the lots estimated at 9.2 USD / MT accounting for weight loss.

Suggested actions: Negotiate longer storage, lower the purchase price at origin.

  1. Handling costs, higher
    8 USD / MT
    Starting
    H1 2027

  2. Sell Hamburg DDP Warehouse

    Affected in-store
    2,153 MT
    Sale pricing
    Sale leg to be fixed
  3. Margin spread, the lots
    9.2 USD / MT
    Handling costs
    8 USD / MT
Hamburg handling costs step up, on the leg this trade sells, against the spread across the lots.

03Poor weather and yields at origin

Temperatures expected at +1.8°C above the norm, yield expected to lower 12% with differentials likely surging. Contract 26-FM12 at risk with 250 MT un-procured, impact for the whole contract estimated at 8-12 USD / MT.

Suggested actions: Lock in 175 MT now, follow weather events closely for the remaining volumes.

  1. Temperatures above the norm
    +1.8°C
    Yield expected to lower
    12%

  2. Contract 26-FM12

    Un-procured
    250 MT
    Closeable now
    175 MT
  3. Differentials
    likely surging
    Impact, whole contract
    8-12 USD / MT
Weather and yield at origin, the un-procured balance on the contract, and the estimated impact.

04Main counterparty revenue down by 18%

Altamana Inc. accounted for 21% of sales last 3 quarters. The affected volumes will likely shrink by 10-15% in Q4 with lower volumes. Second best option is RMI AG, with diffs on average -52 USD / MT, overall profitability lower by 6% on the Santos–Hamburg trade for this counterparty.

Suggested actions: Ship to Singapore, last 3 quarter diffs up by 18%.

  1. Main counterparty revenue
    down by 18%
    Altamana share of sales
    21%

  2. Sale leg, Hamburg

    Affected volumes, Q4
    shrink by 10-15%
    Second best option
    RMI AG
  3. Average diffs
    -52 USD / MT
    Overall profitability
    lower by 6%
The fall in one counterparty's revenue and its share of your sales, the volumes on the leg it sits on, and the profitability of the alternative.

Illustrative example

The Bespoke Trade Margin Scan.

Your data is all there. What is missing is the central orchestration layer. Turn your data into a central intelligence hub for understanding how your supply chain node changes propagate throughout your margin.

One trade, surrounding context organized into per-trade margin attribution. Final delivery is a breakdown and systems outline.

01

NDA always

Your business stays private.

02

What the breakdown maps

1 trade, all reasonable events affecting the margin based on your documents and event history.

03

Deliverable

Ranked actions to mitigate the future margin impact. Data feeds and workflows needed to maintain this for the future.

Engagement begins with a mutual NDA. Scope and sharing extent fully in your control.

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The future is autonomous margin monitoring

If margin breakdown proves value, a full scope for a bespoke, continuous, company & commodity specific margin monitoring system is scoped, implemented and maintained. Active context connected to your CTRM, contracts, spreadsheets, WhatsApp and real-time data feeds based on your commodity markets.

The Direction

Context across your trades

CTRM, spreadsheets, FX, price feeds, warehouse contracts. All in one place, connected to each other to understand the impact.

The Boundary

Your CTRM remains the key

CTRM / ERP remains the centerpiece. Enrich its data to understand the margin better. All done separately.

Built from inside the markets.

We have experience working on trading desks across fertilizers and cocoa, living inside these workflows day to day. FX, shipping, invoicing, delays, regulation changes and counterparty risk. We’ve reconciled manually more than we’d like to admit.

Agrinodus is the layer we are missing. We want to show it to you as well.

Understand your margin, one trade at a time.

Prefer email?vid@agrinodus.comPhone?+41 77 465 82 90